Bottom Line:

The potential for severe thunderstorms is increasing late Sunday night and Monday. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a large portion of the region in at least a 15% probability of severe weather.

Overview:

A cold front will cross the region on Monday bringing with it the potential for severe thunderstorms. While timing is uncertain, storms could arrive in portions of Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late Sunday night, then progress eastward across Southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend on Monday, and this will be refined in future updates. There is the potential for more than one round of thunderstorms on Monday, before the cold front moves east of the region Monday night. The highest probability of severe weather at this time is generally from Southeast Alabama into Southwest Georgia, as well as along and north of I-10 in the Florida counties, and severe weather is also possible further south toward the gulf coast. At this time, the primary threats are damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The storms are expected to be fast movers, so while heavy rainfall could result in poor drainage flooding, the flash flood threat is low.