Bottom Line:

The severe weather threat for very late this morning into the afternoon has remained relatively unchanged since yesterday. This generally remains a weaker and distinctly different system than the event on Tuesday.

Overview:

A cold front moves through this afternoon/evening. Ahead of this front, breezy conditions are expected to develop. This front will also bring a chance for scattered severe storms beginning late this morning and into the afternoon/evening hours. A summary of the various hazards are outlined below.

Severe

• Scattered/widespread storms will develop very late this morning into the afternoon and evening hours. A broken line of storms possible by the late afternoon/evening as it moves east.
• All severe hazards possible though damaging wind and possibly a few tornadoes are the more likely hazards.
• 60 to 70 mph wind gusts, hail up to 1 inch, and a few tornadoes (a strong EF2+ tornado can't be ruled out) possible in severe storms.
• The severe risk will be more scattered compared to what we saw on Tuesday.

Non-Thunderstorm Winds

• Non-thunderstorm winds will increase through the morning and likely be highest in the afternoon as storms begin to develop.
• 25 to 35 mph gusts outside the wind advisory, 35 to 45 mph gusts within the wind advisory possible.
• Will decrease after the cold front moves through this evening.
• These gusts could bring down a few trees, especially any of those in a weakened state after our last severe weather event.

Marine Hazards

• Elevated winds and seas from increased southerly flow will lead to rough wind and seas through Saturday.
• Elevated surf could cause local beach erosion issues.